Author Topic: The Black Math: Number Crunch question - possable birth of a crusader  (Read 3926 times)

Dadalos

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So a question thats been chewing on me for a long while as a numbers kinda guy. lets say the year for RM is around 2037 and the world pops hovering around 9-Billion http://www.worldometers.info/world-population/ ( figured 20 or so years would be juuuuust enough into the future for things to work.) currently the US has around 4.3% of the world population. keeping that amount true with our new supposed world pop of 9 billion sets the us at 387 million in easy rounded numbers. going off the deadliest plagues in our known history http://www.rwjf.org/en/culture-of-health/2013/12/the_five_deadliesto.html "the black plague : 'As much as half of Europe may have died in a span of only four years.' sounds about right for the situation described in RM. The Spanish Flu : 'with a mortality rate as high as one in five and an estimated one-third of the world population afflicted.' the blights much the same only different considering the fact that only immune / natural latent / or blank exposures dont die to the blight. still with the numbers given and even juicing things up for the dramatic sake. US pop of 387 million exposed to a super black plague doing not 50% but 60% sets up around 232 million dead... a staggering number to be sure just from the plague. not counting the immunes / latent / blanks that died to the Romero Effect and general unrest. lets be generous and round that to 250 million 'dead' of what was 387 million.137 million alive scattered through out the US, for fast and dirty lets say that 1:3 survivors are 'safe' in the recession by the time everything shakes out. 91 million or there about are 'lost' among the wide world they now find them selves in. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tooth-to-tail_ratio I think its safe to say the even with an Enclaves 'support' there are not a lot of people signing up to be or even qualify to be takers, thats where we get everyone whos not a taker after-all. lets say our numbers shrink to only 1 in 10 people being professional takers.. were cut down to a mere 9 million desperate skilled souls who have what it takes to try. given all that even given the fact of over the next 5 years there will be losses in those 9 million, the average taker KDR (over the course of every run they've ever done) would only have to be a bit over 25 : 1 to clean the hordes of undead unless I have missed something massive, from the podcasts ive listened to and from my own experiences with RM in my own crews runs. those few kills can be done in just a few legs on a simple session. not to mention the resources the DHQS or Moths have where they could set up rather extensive kill zones and methodically chew up the dead in shifts that fencemen could only dream of in the lore we are given. The general feel of overwhelmednes falls flat with such numbers. the idea fits better with things bing closer to 100 : 1 something thats just oppressively bleak...would be more then 3 times our initial population and almost the initial global population (before the 1:10ing for taker to support). and all that aside still c's arnt smart, a fenceman would have done that number and then some in the early days being described as 12 hour shifts and the sifts lasting days on end as the cities emptied out. T minus never? conservatively should be T-5 years for confirmation and a lock down of latents after the confirmation of C populations going to 0.

Honest to god I love zombies / walkers / casualties / biters / whatever anyone ever wants to call them XD. I am the biggest supporter of RM and probably spend an unhealthy amount of time thinking about it actually. I love every bit of the Work that Caleb and all the play-testers and podcasts have done and look forward to hand-waving hordes of undead that shouldn't exist into being and tossing them into the waiting bayonets of my players all for the sake of a crate of fresh eggs for years and years to come. so please dont take this as anything more then an avid fan looking for confirmation / clarification for a general idea behind the Genre as a whole. figured id say as much here to avoid any potential misunderstandings. XD love you all and remember keep two exits available to you at all times XD.

PS: kinda missed my point there. Is there anything glaringly wrong with my assumptions and napkin-in-less-then 30 min of math thinking add up? and how do others rationalize this seeming imbalances with anything more substantial then obligatory hand-waving for the sake of massive zombie apocalyptic fun?
« Last Edit: August 03, 2017, 02:26:08 AM by Dadalos »
"I must not fear. Fear is the mind-killer. Fear is the little-death that brings total obliteration. I will face my fear. I will permit it to pass over me and through me. And when it has gone, I will turn my inner eye to see its path. Where fear has gone there will be nothing. Only I will remain."

Pixie

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Re: The Black Math: Number Crunch question - possable birth of a crusader
« Reply #1 on: August 03, 2017, 10:43:06 PM »
Here's where my assumptions differ from yours — I assume an 80-90% death rate. The Blight is much more infectious than the Black Death or the Spanish Flu or anything else we've actually encountered and the death rate after infection is 100%.

Just my head cannon though.
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Dadalos

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Re: The Black Math: Number Crunch question - possable birth of a crusader
« Reply #2 on: August 03, 2017, 11:30:08 PM »
Here's where my assumptions differ from yours — I assume an 80-90% death rate. The Blight is much more infectious than the Black Death or the Spanish Flu or anything else we've actually encountered and the death rate after infection is 100%.

Just my head cannon though.

i guess that is true, upping the overall danger of the infection balloons the impact. ill take a bit and rerun the numbers at the higher level to see if that helps my head cannon XD. the idea of something doing more then 60% in the initial onset considering the impact of our real life plagues that have happened though *shudder* . 
"I must not fear. Fear is the mind-killer. Fear is the little-death that brings total obliteration. I will face my fear. I will permit it to pass over me and through me. And when it has gone, I will turn my inner eye to see its path. Where fear has gone there will be nothing. Only I will remain."

Sexton

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Re: The Black Math: Number Crunch question - possable birth of a crusader
« Reply #3 on: August 03, 2017, 11:40:50 PM »
I think the 1 in 10 is a professional Taker a little bit much. I'd put that in the 100:1 odds.

Dadalos

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Re: The Black Math: Number Crunch question - possable birth of a crusader
« Reply #4 on: August 03, 2017, 11:54:41 PM »
I think the 1 in 10 is a professional Taker a little bit much. I'd put that in the 100:1 odds.

that ratchets the numbers up a bit as well, all add that along with the suggestion of upping the initial blight threat by Pixie and run the numbers and see what it looks like. I mostly started this with my own ideas of how things.... optimistically.... looked and then get feedback from the community and kept rerunning it till ive found a solid balance in what the lore tells us we should feel and what shows / movies / games ect have portrayed over the years and what actually shakes out in the math crunch simulation. XD
"I must not fear. Fear is the mind-killer. Fear is the little-death that brings total obliteration. I will face my fear. I will permit it to pass over me and through me. And when it has gone, I will turn my inner eye to see its path. Where fear has gone there will be nothing. Only I will remain."

Dadalos

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Re: The Black Math: Number Crunch question - possable birth of a crusader
« Reply #5 on: August 04, 2017, 12:27:09 AM »
ok working just off the suggestions so far : starting with a US pop of around 387 Million and exposing them to an 80% infection/death Blight (over the initial 60% for a souped up black plague) sets our pop into a hard crash into 77.4 Million left standing. From the 2010 census that is only 2x the pop of California for whats left of the US. Of that well keep the 1:3 mentality and say that 51.6 million still struggle in the loss. changing the initial number of 1 in 10 -> 1 in 100 sets us with a population of pro takers at 516,000 armed against (ignoring new infections and lost takers during everything) 206.4 million (assuming that 1/3 was taken care of on the other side of the river...). recalculating things like this dose put us at a 400 kills to break even. and lines us up with mass C kill operations as stated in the lore and most other Z related media. (an way above the 'optimistic' numbers I had originally had floating around mentally.) paints things a lot more bleak.  8) . but just this little exercise helps me flesh out in my head just how bad this crash was/is. for it to be 30% more devastating then the Black-plague and for it to kill more effectively then the Spanish flu could ever hope to (which itself probably itself failed because of how well it killed...) and then stacking the number of non-takers to what i definitely agree is probably a more realistic number sets up a better gauge of the demographics of a typical enclave. working from what we have here for an average party of 4-5 takers (not counting competition) you could expect the other pop to be around 4-5 hundred people in VERY rough numbers. you figure the each town' probably has around 1-3 taker groups, 10-20 full time fencemen and probably half as many 'cops' to keep the civil peace for the population. obviously were looking at around 300k small(ish) enclaves throught the loss in this numbers setup. which to me works out well and has scratched some Itches that were clawing at my brain-pan for a while XD.

PS: i know ive not figured into ether calculations the effects of a 'relapse' of a vector enclave outbreak or even the effects of the vectors themselves o the situation...or honestly even the C's i was just looking at the outbreak viral part. thanks to everyone who read this. and to anyone who has suggestions from here on out as well.

PPS: also its somewhat interesting to see that RM crash numbers have hit similar levels to the Fall in Eclipse-Phase Titans event (i think i read someplace that there was a 95% death of humans in their cannon.) before were taking the undead masses as a serious threat XD.
« Last Edit: August 04, 2017, 12:33:05 AM by Dadalos »
"I must not fear. Fear is the mind-killer. Fear is the little-death that brings total obliteration. I will face my fear. I will permit it to pass over me and through me. And when it has gone, I will turn my inner eye to see its path. Where fear has gone there will be nothing. Only I will remain."